1st Quarter 2026 Market Update

Executive Summary – Market Backdrop

The first quarter of 2026 delivered a sharp departure from the broad equity momentum that defined 2025. Markets were shaped by a significant rotation — away from large technology and growth stocks and toward value, commodities, and international equities — amid a complex backdrop of geopolitical tension, tariff-related inflation concerns, and a Federal Reserve on pause.

The key themes shaping Q1 2026 included:

• A Federal Reserve that held rates steady throughout the quarter, pausing its 2025 easing cycle as inflation proved more persistent than anticipated in the wake of tariff-driven goods price increases.
• Tariff-related inflation concerns, with effective U.S. tariff rates remaining well above recent historical norms and keeping consumer prices elevated above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Geopolitical risk driving a sharp spike in energy and commodity prices, creating significant market volatility and contributing to the extraordinary returns in the commodity asset class.
• A continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, acting as a meaningful tailwind for international equity returns when translated back to dollars for U.S.-based investors.
• Strong performance by value-oriented and fundamentally weighted investment strategies, reversing the pattern of growth and technology leadership that characterized 2025.

These conditions created a more challenging environment for U.S. growth-oriented investors, while rewarding diversification into value, international markets, and real assets.

Market Sector Performance

The table below shows returns for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) representing different investment types, using the total return for each ETF — which includes interest and dividends, not just price changes. This distinction matters: most popular press reports compute index returns using only price change. If you followed the S&P 500 in the news this quarter, you saw headline numbers that understated the actual investor experience. Using indexed ETFs is a more precise measure of what investors earned.

Total returns as of March 31, 2026. Five-year average annual returns are annualized. Source: ETF total return data.

U.S. Equity Markets

The first quarter of 2026 saw a meaningful reversal in U.S. equity leadership. After two consecutive years of technology-driven outperformance, growth stocks pulled back sharply while value and fundamentally weighted strategies moved to the front.

• Large Technology & Growth (QQQ) fell 5.9% in Q1 — a stark contrast to the +20.8% full-year 2025 return. Elevated valuations, concerns about AI spending sustainability, and a rotation toward value stocks all weighed on the sector. Despite this difficult quarter, the 5-year average annual return for QQQ remains a strong 13.3%, a reminder that short-term volatility is a normal feature of higher-growth asset classes.
• Broad U.S. Market (IWV) and Large-Cap Core (VOO) both declined approximately 4%, reflecting the heavy technology weighting in broad, market-cap weighted indices. When the largest companies by market value underperform, the index follows.
• Large Value Stocks (VTV) gained 3.3%, representing an approximately 8-percentage-point performance gap compared to the S&P 500 in a single quarter — a dramatic style rotation that deserves attention.
• Fundamental Weighted U.S. Stocks (FNDX) gained 2.8%, reinforcing the advantage of weighting by underlying business fundamentals — earnings, sales, dividends, and book value — rather than simply by company size. FNDX outpaced VOO by approximately 7 percentage points in Q1.
• Small Company Stocks (IWM) eked out a modest +0.9% gain — resilient given the equity headwinds but still limited by rate uncertainty and ongoing tariff-related cost pressures affecting smaller businesses.

Interpretation: The Q1 rotation from growth to value is a meaningful signal. After years of mega-cap technology dominance, investors are reassessing valuations and seeking businesses with stronger near-term earnings power and dividend income. Companies with solid balance sheets, manageable debt loads, and consistent profitability proved more resilient when sentiment shifted. Investors should not interpret the Q1 decline in broad indices as a signal to abandon equities — rather, it highlights the importance of style diversification within an equity allocation.

International Equity

International stocks were a standout category in Q1 2026, continuing the outperformance trend that began in earnest during 2025.

• Fundamental Weighted International Stocks (FNDF) returned an exceptional +8.2% in Q1 alone. As with FNDX domestically, weighting by business fundamentals rather than market capitalization has proven highly effective in capturing more value-oriented companies in developed markets.
• Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 3.8%, reflecting improving investor sentiment and attractive valuations relative to developed market peers.
• International Developed Markets (SPDW) gained 2.8%, supported by the continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, which amplifies international returns when converted back to dollars for U.S.-based investors.

Interpretation: International equity valuations remain closer to long-term historical averages compared to U.S. equities, which entered 2026 priced near historically elevated levels. A weaker dollar adds a currency tailwind on top of underlying stock performance. Q1 2026 continues to demonstrate the value of maintaining global diversification — portfolios that owned only U.S. stocks left significant returns on the table in both 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

Fixed Income & Real Assets

Bonds delivered minimal but stable results, while commodities posted the standout return of the quarter by a wide margin.

• Core Bonds (BND, VGIT, SCHO) were essentially flat for the quarter, reflecting a Federal Reserve that held rates steady as inflation proved persistent. The near-zero returns across bond categories are consistent with a “wait and see” interest rate environment. Note that the modest 5-year average annual returns shown for BND and VGIT (0.3% and 0.4%) reflect the severe 2022 bond market downturn still dragging down longer-term averages — not what investors should expect going forward.
• Inflation-Protected Bonds (VTIP) outperformed nominal bonds with a +1.0% return, providing a meaningful hedge as tariff-related price pressures kept inflation running above the Fed’s target.
• Real Estate (VNQ) gained +1.3%, a modest positive contribution in a rate-uncertain environment where lower borrowing cost expectations remained on hold.
• Commodities (DBC) surged an extraordinary +29.5% in Q1 — the single largest return among all categories tracked. This reflects a combination of geopolitical-driven energy price spikes and tariff-related upward pressure on goods prices. It is worth noting that a single-quarter commodity return of this magnitude is historically unusual and should not be extrapolated as an ongoing trend. That said, a modest strategic allocation to commodities can meaningfully improve portfolio diversification during exactly these kinds of market environments.

Interpretation: Bonds fulfilled their role as a portfolio stabilizer even as they produced minimal returns — in a quarter where the broad equity market fell 4%, flat bonds meaningfully cushioned the blow for diversified investors. The VTIP outperformance relative to nominal bonds underscores a practical lesson: when tariff-driven inflation is the dominant risk, inflation-protected bonds earn their place in a portfolio.

Diversified Portfolios – Results & Implications

The asset allocation ETFs at the bottom of the table — which blend stocks and bonds in fixed proportions — reflect how broadly diversified strategies fared across the risk spectrum in Q1.

• The aggressive allocation (AOA, 80% stocks / 20% bonds) fell −1.2%, cushioned meaningfully from a much larger decline by its fixed income component.
• The conservative allocation (AOK, 40% stocks / 60% bonds) fell only −0.2%, demonstrating how higher bond weights act as shock absorbers during equity drawdowns.
• All four allocation funds remain solidly positive on a 5-year basis (3.4% to 8.0% average annual returns), a powerful reminder that quarterly fluctuations are noise relative to the long-term compounding story.

Interpretation: Diversified investors experienced a mildly negative quarter — but the damage was modest relative to what a concentrated U.S. growth portfolio would have suffered. International equity, inflation-protected bonds, and real assets all contributed positively in a quarter that was difficult for domestic growth stocks. This is exactly how a diversified strategy is designed to perform.

Market Environment Drivers – Q1 2026

Monetary Policy and Inflation

The Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady throughout the first quarter, pausing the easing cycle that had delivered three rate cuts during the second half of 2025. The pause reflected a genuine policy dilemma: tariff-related goods price increases had kept consumer inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, while economic growth remained relatively solid. Markets that had priced in continued rate cuts entering 2026 were forced to adjust those expectations — a repricing that weighed particularly hard on rate-sensitive growth stocks and technology companies with elevated valuations.

Geopolitical and Trade Policy Risk

Geopolitical tensions caused significant volatility in energy and commodity markets during Q1, producing the extraordinary commodity returns shown in the performance table. Tariff policy, while somewhat stabilized relative to the turbulence of 2025, continued to influence investor behavior, business planning, and supply chain decisions. The combined effect of geopolitical risk and ongoing trade policy uncertainty created a more cautious equity market environment, even as underlying economic fundamentals remained broadly supportive.

Style Rotation and Valuation Reset

U.S. equity markets entered 2026 priced at historically elevated valuation levels, leaving little margin for disappointment. After two years of extraordinary technology-sector performance, investors increasingly rotated into companies with lower valuations, stronger near-term earnings, and more predictable dividend income. The result was one of the sharpest single-quarter growth-to-value rotations in recent memory. Fundamentally weighted index strategies — which structurally favor value characteristics — benefited accordingly, outperforming their market-cap weighted counterparts by meaningful margins in both U.S. and international markets.

Outlook & Key Considerations

Positives

• Value and fundamental weighting strategies — domestically and internationally — demonstrated strong early 2026 performance, suggesting the equity market is broadening beyond mega-cap technology in a constructive way.
• International equity continues to offer attractive valuations relative to U.S. markets, with potential currency tailwinds from a weaker dollar providing additional return opportunity.
• Inflation-protected bonds and real assets delivered meaningful portfolio diversification during a quarter that was difficult for domestic equities — validating their strategic role.
• The underlying U.S. economy continues to show resilience, supported by ongoing AI infrastructure investment, fiscal policy tailwinds, and a still-functioning labor market.

Risks & Watch Items

• U.S. equity valuations remain elevated by historical standards. Markets priced for perfection are more vulnerable to negative surprises — whether from earnings misses, further policy uncertainty, or geopolitical escalation.
• Tariff-related inflation has proven more persistent than markets expected entering 2026. If consumer prices remain above target, the Federal Reserve’s ability to resume rate cuts — and the resulting support for equity valuations — will remain constrained.
• Commodity price spikes driven by geopolitical events can be temporary or prolonged. The sustainability of the Q1 commodity surge warrants monitoring, as sustained energy price increases can weigh on consumer spending and corporate profit margins.
• Labor market softening could emerge as a risk to consumer spending in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income households already managing elevated living costs.

Conclusion

Q1 2026 reinforces a lesson that long-term investors know well — leadership rotates, and diversification works. After two extraordinary years for U.S. growth stocks, the first quarter rewarded value, international diversification, inflation-protected bonds, and real assets. Investors who maintained broad exposure across asset classes, geographies, and investment styles weathered the quarter far better than those concentrated in the prior cycle’s winners.

As we move deeper into 2026, continued focus on valuation discipline, geographic diversification, and systematic rebalancing will be essential tools for navigating an environment shaped by policy uncertainty, persistent inflation, and evolving global growth dynamics.